Denver Post sports writer Corey Masisak opens up the Avs Mailbag periodically throughout the season. Pose an Avalanche- or NHL-related question for the Avs Mailbag.
Assuming we can stay healthy and people expected to eventually slot in do, how does this year’s team stack up against the Cup team?
@Zickened
The Avs have played a quarter of their season, and … so far this team stacks up quite well against the championship group from two years ago. Colorado is currently on pace for 117 points. The Avs finished with 119 two years ago.
They are currently third in the league in goals per game and 10th in goals allowed per contest. The Cup champs finished second in goals and seventh in goals against. The power play was better two years ago, but the penalty kill has been significantly better this season.
If we break the two sides down player by player, the 2022 team was deeper up front. Nazem Kadri had a huge year as the No. 2 center, and Ryan Johansen probably won’t match it. The Cup team also had Andre Burakovsky and Gabe Landeskog, and the guys slotted into those spots aren’t likely to be as productive.
The 2023-24 team is better in spots. Mikko Rantanen is better. Artturi Lehkonen, assuming he returns from a neck injury at some point, is no longer a new guy trying to fit in. Ross Colton might be a slight upgrade at the No. 3 center spot.
This current team does have a better defense corps. It’s mostly the same guys, but it’s a full season of Bowen Byram and Josh Manson. Plus there’s the scary thought that Cale Makar and Devon Toews are better now than they were two years ago.
A big question remains in net. Darcy Kuemper and Pavel Francouz had better regular-season numbers than the current tandem has, but both goalies had sub-.910 save percentages in the playoffs that year. The offense was so overpowering that it didn’t matter.
This team doesn’t have the same offensive upside as the 2022 Cup champs, but it might be a little better without the puck. And there’s no team out that screams “Uh-oh, they might steamroll everyone in May/June,” either.
What gaps, position wise, do you see with the current squad and how would you fill them?
@Hungry_Definition450
Assuming that Lehkonen and Samuel Girard are going to rejoin the team at some point before the end of the season, the Avs don’t have a lot of wiggle room below the salary cap ceiling. They have been over the upper limit and using long-term injured reserve exemptions all season.
They could get to about $2 million in space by having only 20 guys on the roster once Lehkonen and Girard return, but that’s not an ideal way to live. As it stands, Joel Kiviranta and Caleb Jones would account for nearly $1.6 million of that money as the extras. They’ve both played well enough to deserve a spot, even at full strength.
There’s not a lot that this team needs, and given the lack of cap flexibility any moves before the deadline likely won’t be flashy. Two areas where they could try to improve on the margins: one more capable, cheap defenseman and one more capable, cheap center.
Jones has given the Avs a No. 7 they feel pretty confident in, but most teams with Cup aspirations are going to want eight for a playoff run. Johansen, Colton and Fredrik Olofsson have all played well in their roles, but the depth at the position is questionable.
The Avs have some options that they could use in a pinch — Ben Meyers, Peter Holland, Ondrej Pavel with the Eagles, or sliding Andrew Cogliano or Rantanen over from the wing. Do the Avs want to use one of them in a playoff game if Colton or Olofsson is unavailable? Probably not.
Also, don’t forget the biggest wild card for the Avs — Nikolai Kovalenko. Given how well he’s playing in Russia this season, he might be able to squeeze his way onto the third or fourth line once he arrives.
What are your thoughts on (Ivan) Prosvetov so far as a backup? Do you think the Avs will still ride Georgie as hard as they did last year? Georgie already has 13 wins.
@Telethebasin
I think Prosvetov has been everything the Avalanche could have hoped for, if not more, with a waiver wire addition at the end of training camp. He’s had two very good starts and one that was so-so, but as Jared Bednar noted at the time, he did give them a chance to win the game.
Beyond the stats, it feels like Prosvetov has fit in well and has a good working relationship with goalie coach Jussi Parkkila. I think Prosvetov is going to be the No. 2 guy and the Avs will be comfortable with their goaltending, though a serious injury for Georgiev might make them consider adding another external option.
Georgiev has played a lot so far, but an extremely favorable schedule had a lot to do with that. The club has only had one back-to-back so far, but more are coming. I think this has worked out pretty well — Georgiev has played a lot, played through a bit of a slump and now the team will be able to gradually add more games for Prosvetov.
Even if both guys stay healthy all year (a big if), I’d bet that Prosvetov gets at least 22 starts, and maybe 25. The Avs don’t want to play Georgiev 62-65 times if they don’t have to, and Prosvetov has proven plenty capable so far.
What are your thoughts on the Norris (Trophy) this year? Think it’s pretty solidly going to come down to Makar vs. (Quinn) Hughes and the hype surrounding them both has been so fun to keep up with.
@witchtutor1, and several others
If you told me today that Makar is going to play 75 games this season, I’d tell Cale he should probably have a speech ready for the NHL awards show. The way he’s playing, combined with his reputation around the league as the near-consensus best defenseman on the planet, makes him a hard person to bet against for the Norris.
Hughes is off to a great start, but still needs to prove he can play at this level for six months. There’s also some less-than-great indicators with Vancouver’s success in general, so if the Canucks fall back it might hurt his chances as well. Miro Heiskanen probably won’t have the offensive numbers, but he should get more recognition as one of the best in the league.
Adam Fox just missed 10 games, so any more time off and he’s probably out of the running. There are others who can get involved as well, but as of this point in the season, I’d project Makar to win, with Fox and Hughes rounding out the top three.
Is Jean-Luc Foudy expected to be healthy enough to rejoin the Colorado Eagles any time soon?
@Audenond
Bednar gave a non-update update Tuesday on Foudy, just saying that he’s still not ready to return from the lower-body injury that has kept him out, but he’s making progress. One thing I would note — when former Eagles coach Greg Cronin was in Denver with the Ducks, he named Foudy as a guy that he thinks could help the Avs this year, not just the Eagles.
He’d probably need to get back pretty soon for that to happen though, because he’s probably going to need time to get back into playing shape and play well for the Eagles for a while before the Avs give him a look.
More of a general NHL question – what are some of your favorite arenas to watch games in (regardless of who is playing)? Â
@chaz81
Best arena to watch a game in is Montreal, then there’s a gap to the next tier. The one Colorado is playing in Thursday night, Mullet Arena, gets plenty of slack from fans (and players) because it’s not really an NHL rink. But it’s also a really fun place to watch a game, and has one of the most spacious visiting locker rooms in the league.
The best atmospheres I’ve seen for playoff games, besides Montreal, are Chicago, Washington, Nashville and San Jose. I haven’t covered a playoff game at Ball Arena before, but I’m guessing that will change in a few months.
I’ve thought about this a good bit over the past couple seasons while living in San Jose and now Denver, and honestly most of my favorite regular-season atmospheres are not in the traditional markets. Just in terms of atmosphere … Dallas, Tampa Bay, Columbus, Carolina, Seattle and Denver are all as good or better than places like Toronto, Detroit, the three teams in the New York market, Boston and Philadelphia.
If you’re the GM of Colorado and Patrick Kane comes and asks you for a 2-year, $4 million deal with a no-movement clause, do you take it? What do you do to make it work if so?
@daishi777
Kane signed a one-year, $2.75 million deal with the Red Wings after this question was asked, but even if he was still on the market I think the answer to the reader’s question is no. I don’t think the Avs would be interested in a two-year deal for a older player who is coming off a rare procedure (hip resurfacing) that few NHL players have had done.
The track record, post procedure, for those players is not good. Washington’s Nicklas Backstrom is the latest guy to try and come back from it, and that didn’t go well. Ryan Kesler was another one.
I didn’t like the fit with Kane from the start, so I’m not the right guy to ask about trying to make it work with him. I’m not sure he’d be an upgrade over Jonathan Drouin or Tomas Tatar, to be honest. Giving a guy multiple years with a no-move clause when we might find out a month from now that he can’t play like he did before would be a minor disaster.
Want more Avalanche news? Sign up for the Avalanche Insider to get all our NHL analysis.