Chargers (5-10) at Broncos (7-8)
When: 2:25 p.m. MT, Sunday
Where: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS
Broncos-Chargers series: Denver is 71-55-1 in 127 regular-season games dating back to 1960; the Broncos won 24-7 in the last meeting, on Dec. 12, 2023, in Los Angeles, and have won two in a row against their divisional foe.
In the spotlight
In Denver’s loss to the New England Patriots last Sunday, the Broncos learned an age-old lesson in the NFL: Never overlook an opponent despite its record.
The Patriots entered the game 3-11 and still found a way to beat the Broncos at home.
“Everyone was blinded by the 3-11 (record), but they have a top-five-to-10 defense in every single category,” tight end Adam Trautman said Wednesday.
On Sunday, the Broncos welcome another struggling team: the Los Angeles Chargers. At 5-10, the Chargers, who had high expectations entering the season, have spiraled downward. Star quarterback Justin Herbert suffered a season-ending injury, while the Chargers fired head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco after they gave up 63 points in a loss to the Raiders.
In spite of all that, Denver doesn’t want to make the same mistake twice. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph sees a Chargers team that’s been more aggressive on offense since the last time both teams faced each other at SoFi Stadium.
Joseph also sees a team that has nothing to lose but a lot to prove.
“The coach has moved on, and guys are playing for jobs and contracts, so why not? That makes it hard on defenses,” he said.
Against Buffalo, the Chargers almost caught the Bills slipping. Los Angeles jumped out to a 10-0 lead, and was even up by one with under six minutes left in regulation before Bills kicker Tyler Bass nailed a go-ahead field goal with 28 seconds left to pull off the 24-22 come-from-behind win.
The Chargers’ aggressiveness, which Joseph alluded to, has been noticeable in the passing game. Backup quarterback Easton Stick has 32.5 pass attempts in his last two starts. Stick has a 62.5% completion percentage on passes between 10 and 19 yards, according to Pro Football Focus. He has also gone 5-for-10 on pass attempts for 20-plus yards.
Joseph said the Chargers’ willingness to rely on the passing game will give his defense a challenge.
“It’s scary to watch,” he said.
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run
Javonte Williams has struggled down the stretch. Denver’s starting running back averaged 25.5 yards in the last two games. Perhaps, it’s time to give Samaje Perine more carries out of the backfield? He has averaged 4.8 yards per carry on 46 attempts. The Chargers have allowed 100-plus rushing yards in seven straight games, including 106 in their first meeting with the Broncos in Week 14. Edge: Even
When Broncos pass
The Russell Wilson era in Denver appears to be nearing an end. Head coach Sean Payton will get a chance to evaluate how backup Jarrett Stidham runs his offense. Luckily for the former Auburn standout, he will face a pretty bad Chargers pass defense that has allowed the third-highest quarterback rating in the league this season at 99.1. Edge: Broncos
When Chargers run
Los Angeles running back Austin Ekeler is on the verge of finishing with fewer than 10 rushing touchdowns for the first time since 2020. The Eaton High graduate currently has just five touchdowns after recording 13 in 2022. The Broncos are tied for 11th in rushing touchdowns allowed (14), with the run defense improved since a dreadful first half of the season. Edge: Broncos
When Chargers pass
Easton Stick has thrown for 472 yards, four touchdowns and an interception in two starts since Justin Herbert was lost for the season with a broken finger. Los Angeles is tied for 12th in sacks allowed with 39. The Broncos recorded six sacks in the last matchup against the Chargers. Since then, they have totaled four sacks in the last two games. Edge: Broncos
Special teams
Christmas Eve’s loss to the Patriots wasn’t a pretty night for Denver on special teams. Kicker Wil Lutz missed a 57-yard field goal attempt while rookie Marvin Mims Jr. fumbled a kick return, resulting in a touchdown for the Patriots that put Denver in a 16-point hole. The Chargers are fourth in field goal percentage (96%). Edge: Broncos
Coaching
Broncos coach Sean Payton made one of his most questionable moves this season by benching Russell Wilson despite the nine-time Pro Bowler submitting a generally productive season and his team still having slim playoff hopes. The decision came after he elected to burn two timeouts late in the fourth quarter against the Patriots, which ultimately came back to haunt his team in a last-second loss. And once again, his play-calling was shaky. Chargers interim head coach Giff Smith nearly beat the Bills in his debut but lost by two points on a last-minute field goal. At the very least, the Chargers haven’t thrown in the towel on the season. Edge: Broncos
Tale of the tape
| Broncos | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 298.2 (25th) | 329.7 (18th) |
| Rush offense | 110.7 (14th) | 95.9 (24th) |
| Pass offense | 187.5 (25th) | 233.8 (13th) |
| Points per game | 21.8 (16th) | 21.7 (T-17th) |
| Total Defense | 376.2 (30th) | 372.6 (29th) |
| Run defense | 141.1 (31st) | 113.3 (17th) |
| Pass defense | 235.1 (24th) | 259.3 (30th) |
| Points allowed | 25.1 (29th) | 24.6 (26th) |
By the numbers
361: Receiving yards for Mims.
7: Turnovers given up by the offense in the last four games.
6: Career touchdown passes for Jarrett Stidham.
3.5: Sacks recorded by outside linebacker Baron Browning.
5%: Broncos’ playoff chances heading into the weekend, according to the New York Times.
Bet on it
Line: Broncos -5.5
Their playoff chances are slim, but the Broncos still have something to play for. They will take care of business in their final home game of the season.
Prop bet: Over/under 38.5
The safest bet is to take the over. This is the same Chargers team that allowed 63 points to the Raiders. Denver should be able to put up points even with Stidham under center. If not, Payton is going to look like a fool.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Broncos 24, Chargers 23
A Jarrett Stidham win? A Jarrett Stidham win. Remember, the Chargers are starting Easton Stick and have an interim coach and general manager. Nobody in this game’s got much to lose. If Denver gets a win, maybe a bunch of other games fall their way, too. Let’s get weird.
Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 27, Chargers 20
In the battle of backup quarterbacks, Jarrett Stidham will come out on top. The Chargers have one of the worst passing defenses in the league and Stidham has a chance to put up impressive numbers in his first start with the Broncos. My crystal ball also tells me wide receiver Jerry Jeudy will have a big game.
Mark Kiszla, columnist: Chargers 20, Broncos 10
Sean Payton insists the change at quarterback is all about winning. How many players in the Denver locker room truly believe Jarrett Stidham gives the team a better chance to beat the Chargers than Russell Wilson? We’re fixing to find out.
Matt Schubert, sports editor: Broncos 23, Chargers 20
So many of my preseason predictions were off, but the one that’s felt right from the start? An 8-9 campaign for the Broncos in their first year under Sean Payton. That means splitting the next two games vs. the Chargers and at Las Vegas. It says here that this weekend’s game is the most winnable of the two — even with the quarterback change.
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