When Sean Payton downed one too many lattes and went scorched earth on a scorching day back in July, he said a bunch of stuff he caught heat for.
He also threw down the gauntlet.
“I’m going to be (ticked) off if this is not a playoff team,” Payton told USA TODAY then.
He could not have known at that moment just how right he’d be.
Not because the Broncos are overly talented. And not because they stormed out of the gates like his first New Orleans team did in 2006.
Just the opposite, in fact. Because despite all of Denver’s flaws and despite the dreadful 1-5 start to the season, the Broncos somehow ended up with a postseason berth sitting on a silver platter, waiting to be taken.
The NFL isn’t normally so forgiving, mind you. It’s an attrition game, one where if the collective toll of injuries and close games don’t make the difference, losing your first three home games to bad teams almost certainly will.
Not this team, though. And that makes this opportunity one they cannot let slip through their fingertips.
They’ve got to find a way to win their final three games and at least put themselves in a position where they miss the playoffs because everything else around them goes wrong, the combination of other results adds up to a Whammy and they get left out at 10-7.
Because everything else around the Broncos, for most of this season, has lined up just right.
Particularly so on the health front.
Denver has been remarkably healthy throughout the season.
Yes, they had a run of injuries in training camp and Week 1 and it cost them a couple of key contributors in Tim Patrick, Caden Sterns, and, for six weeks, Baron Browning. And yes, tight end Greg Dulcich was a big part of Denver’s plan before continued hamstring injuries (and now a foot issue) marred his season.
Other than that, though, the Broncos have little to complain about.
They’ve started the same quintet on the offensive line in every game. Russell Wilson has been healthy the whole way after missing two games and showing up on the injury report three separate times last year.
Key free agents right tackle Mike McGlinchey and defensive lineman Zach Allen have clean sheets going. Inside linebacker Alex Singleton? He hasn’t come off the field for a single snap since Week 3.
After finishing 2022 as arguably the most-injured team in the NFL, the Broncos in 2023 are among the least.
Which dovetails into the second part of this conversation: All around the AFC, quarterbacks on playoff contenders have fallen to injury.
After the four current division leaders, the AFC wild card race features these teams:
• Cleveland playing Joe Flacco, their fourth starter of the season.
• Cincinnati playing Jake Browning after star Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury.
• Indianapolis playing Gardner Minshew after No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury.
• Houston, potentially playing Case Keenum a second straight game as rookie sensation C.J. Stroud deals with a concussion.
• Buffalo, a rarity in this conversation, has played a healthy Josh Allen all year but the Broncos have a head-to-head tiebreaker.
• Pittsburgh, on the brink of elimination in part because they’ve lost three straight since Mitch Trubisky took over for injured starter Kenny Pickett.
It’s been that kind of year in the NFL. The year of the back-up quarterback. Only 14 quarterbacks have started every game for their team this year and only six in the AFC.
Any guesses? The guys on the four division leaders – Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence – plus Wilson and Allen.
Any of those six should be disappointed if they’re not playing beyond the next three games. Five of them have either clinched a postseason spot or, according to the New York Times, entered this weekend with 74% or better odds of making the cut. The Broncos are at 24%.
Even still, they play two of their final three at home and the combined records of their three remaining foes (New England, the Chargers and Las Vegas) are 14-28. That trio’s combined to lose two of every three games they’ve played this year.
Two out of three won’t cut it for Denver in the win column at this point. They need the trifecta. Otherwise, all that hard work digging out of the hole will go down as a righteous chance gone begging.
Number to Know
92%: That’s the playoff likelihood entering the thrust of this weekend’s action for the Cleveland Browns, who are a key player in how the ancillary stuff falls for the Broncos. The Broncos, of course, have a head-to-head tiebreaker with Cleveland. But given that Denver enters Sunday two games back of the 9-5 Browns and Kevin Stefanski’s team is going against 8-6 Houston, it’s probably better at this point for Denver if Cleveland just keeps winning and wraps up a postseason berth. After this weekend — assuming the Broncos win and remain in contention, at least — there should be a little more clarity on exactly who Payton and company want to win which games. But for now, let’s start with the Browns.
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