At four, there is one.
This is my conclusion after the college football season, NFL combine, pro days and private workouts. For the Broncos, there is one quarterback for whom it makes sense to move up and move all their chips to the center of the table.
Jayden Daniels.
Daniels belongs to the future. He can distance the Broncos from their ugly past. Since Peyton Manning the Broncos have started 13 quarterbacks. Two have a winning record: Trevor Siemian (13-11) and Brett Rypien (2-1). The Broncos figured they pulled the emergency brake on this carousel of madness when they acquired Russell Wilson. Instead, it was like asking Megan Fox to prom and Meg Griffin showing up at the door with a boutonniere.
Wilson is reason for caution when considering another bold move. The Broncos own the 12th overall selection in the draft. To land the fourth pick from the Arizona Cardinals – they are flashing a neon “open for business” sign – it will hurt. I cannot see the Cardinals accepting less than three first-round picks and a third-rounder. For a Broncos franchise lacking talent — they have a bottom-third roster — surrendering draft capital makes me squirm.
To make sure we all understand the math and the risk, I present the sobering numbers: In separate deals for Wilson and coach Sean Payton, the Broncos traded three first-round picks, three second-round picks, a fifth-round pick, quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant and defensive tackle Shelby Harris.
So, 10 players for 11 wins from Wilson for $124 million and eight victories from Payton for $18 million. That’s a worse return on investment than a boutique hotel during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Owner and CEO Greg Penner acknowledged to me Tuesday that “it’s definitely a challenge (to find the quarterback). But I feel good now with myself, Sean, (general manager) George (Paton), and others we have on staff. It doesn’t guarantee we are going to get it right, but I feel like we are in a much better position to get it right.”
When Payton took the Broncos job, there was hope he could fix Wilson. He gave it 15 games and could no longer stomach Wilson playing off script or the offensive inefficiency in the red zone and goal-to-go situations. Penner signed off on the $85 million dead cap hit to make Wilson go away, including $53 million this season.
No matter how they frame it — rebuild, reboot — this is a transition season for the Broncos as they reconfigure the roster while trying to remain competitive. Sportsbooks peg the Broncos’ over-under at 5.5 wins. I believe Payton has three years to turn the Broncos into contenders. Why not start the clock on the quarterback this season?
At the NFL owners meetings, Payton called moving up in the draft “realistic.” He is brash and bold. And there’s a path that screams for the Broncos to be aggressive. It involves the draft falling a certain way. The Bears take Caleb Williams No. 1 overall. That’s going to happen. Everything else is murky.
In my scenario, the Broncos need the Commanders to take J.J. McCarthy second and the Patriots to select Drake Maye or surrender the pick to the Vikings to snatch him up. It would leave Daniels sitting there with history hanging in the balance.
Never. That’s how many times four quarterbacks have gone in the first four picks. This will be the year.
The Broncos cannot waver. The Raiders will likely covet Daniels. Coach Antonio Pierce worked at Arizona State when Daniels played there. If the Raiders get him, it would leave an AFC West of Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Daniels and Jarrett Stidham. Cue Sesame Street’s “One of These Things (Is Not Like The Others).”
You feel cheated you never got to see Josh Allen launch? Or Lamar Jackson pass? Even Dak Prescott lead?
Daniels represents a chance to make 13 wrongs right. The 23-year-old threw for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns with four interceptions last season. He completed 72.2% of his passes. He also ran for 10 scores. Joe Burrow, who like Daniels rocketed from a Day 3 pick to the top of the draft, threw 44 touchdowns at a 78.3% clip in his final collegiate season.
The fair question is whether Daniels will fit Payton’s system. He is a dynamic runner and vertical passer. However, he will pass from the pocket, make tight-window throws and go through his progressions. Obviously, he will have to make smarter decisions about when he takes off. He will outrun defenders in the pros, but he will learn that he must be smart. Collisions in the NFL lead to missed games. At 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, he is not slight, but has to limit hits.
I have talked to a handful of NFL people I trust who view Daniels as the best quarterback in this draft. Payton values meetings as much as anyone, wanting to know his quarterback has all the software and hardware. There was buzz leaving the combine that Daniels aced his sessions with teams, leaving them impressed with his knowledge, maturity and leadership.
And the Broncos have inside intel. Vice president of player health performance Beau Lowery and defensive line coach Jamar Cain were on LSU’s staff in 2022 when Daniels transferred to Baton Rouge. Lowery helped turn Denver into one of the league’s healthiest teams in 2023 — after 2022’s Hamstring Pullapalooza.
My preference for Daniels goes beyond his skill set. It traces to his aptitude and humility. He was a big-time recruit out of high school, and has improved dramatically over the years. This does not happen because of physical gifts alone. There is a mental component required. In the NFL, everyone is talented. Quarterbacks of NFL teams are CEOs of Fortune 500 companies. Everything matters. The work ethic must be relentless. The ability to process information quickly in meetings, in the huddle and at the line of scrimmage is no longer a luxury, but a necessity.
Daniels checks all the boxes. He can make all the throws and turn mistakes into happy accidents with his legs.
The Broncos missed on Allen and Jackson and bombed on Paxton Lynch. There is one reason to move up to No. 4. It’s Daniels. And if you don’t believe me, you don’t Jack.
Want more sports news? Sign up for the Sports Omelette to get all our analysis on Denver’s teams.
