There are only two certainties about the Hart Memorial Trophy in 2024: One player will win, and three fan bases will be mad.

This is going to be one of the most fascinating awards in recent NHL history, and it could be one of the tightest Hart Trophy votes ever. Here is the simple truth: There are four players who deserve to win the NHL’s MVP, as voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers Association.

In alphabetical order, Nikita Kucherov, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid have all had extraordinary seasons and would be worthy winners. In other seasons, or an alternate universe where the ‘N’ in NHL stands for New York, Artemi Panarin would have a realistic chance of winning as well.

It’s possible the two MVP awards, including the Ted Lindsay Award (voted on by the players) will have different outcomes. We’re going to break down the case for each of the four top contenders, but first let’s get a few of the misplaced narratives out of the way:

• Nikita Kucherov does not deserve to win because his teammates weren’t that good this year. There will be more on this shortly. He also shouldn’t be penalized for the weird All-Star game antics.

• Nathan MacKinnon does not deserve to win because he hasn’t before (and the other three have). The award is about this season, not the others.

• Auston Matthews does not deserve to win — or be penalized — because of the team he plays for. Rational discussions involving the Toronto Maple Leafs can be hard to come by.

• Connor McDavid does not deserve to win because his team stunk for a while, then the coach got fired and the Oilers were good again. He also should not be penalized for winning several times before.

On to the arguments for each player, which everyone will surely agree with …

The case for Kucherov

Kucherov had the inside track to winning the equally exciting Art Ross Trophy race as of Saturday morning. Given how close it could be between him, MacKinnon and McDavid, finishing with the most points could matter.

His 5-on-5 numbers are very good, but a tick behind the other contenders. His power-play numbers, however, are fantastic, and being the best in that phase of the game should matter.

Of the contenders, he’s the winner in the “scored more points than the next-best guy on his team” category. Some voters love this as a tentpole of a player’s candidacy. Players should not get rewarded for having mediocre teammates, or penalized for having great ones.

It is 2024. There are plenty of ways to determine the value an individual player brings to a team. Also, Brayden Point and Victor Hedman are still great players.

There was a point recently when “Kucherov dragged this team to the playoffs” was a potential narrative, but the Lightning are surging to the end of the season and weren’t really in danger of missing out, as it turns out.

Kucherov is a wonderful player and deserves to win.

The case for MacKinnon

It’s all about consistency and volume. MacKinnon had the second-longest home point streak in league history. He also had two 19-game point streaks, regardless of venue. If the award was most consistently valuable, it would be his.

His on-ice volume at 5-on-5 is the league’s best. The Avalanche has shot the puck more times with MacKinnon on the ice at 5-on-5 than any forward in the NHL. The Avs have the most shots on goal when he’s on the ice among forwards. They have the most goals (92) of any player, regardless of position.

MacKinnon’s 5-on-5 on-ice goal differential (plus-32) is currently better than the other contenders, but McDavid (plus-31) and Matthews (plus-30) are right there as well.

The case against MacKinnon is that he plays with Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar. The closest thing this journal is going to make to a prediction is that the lack of a solid case against MacKinnon could help him — particularly when it comes to where voters slot guys second, third, fourth and fifth.

This is a voting process where the second-through-fifth voting is going to matter a tremendous amount. If someone suggested MacKinnon will win but not gain the most first-place votes, this author would say that might be a wise suggestion.

MacKinnon is a wonderful player who deserves to win.

The case for Matthews

Goals and defense.

Matthews needs three goals to score the most in the salary cap era, and seven to have the most in three decades. He’s at 63 right now — the other three guys who have had 63-plus in a season in the past 30 years have all won.

The case against Matthews is he doesn’t have the assists, or the total points, to compare to his fellow contenders. That is true, but he has another card to play. Matthews clearly has the best defensive numbers of the group.

Here are the on-ice goals against at 5-on-5: Kucherov has 70, MacKinnon has 60, McDavid has 55. It’s 43 for Matthews, who also doesn’t exactly have Patrick Roy or Dominik Hasek behind him.

Matthews is a wonderful player who deserves to win.

The case for McDavid

He’s the best player. MacKinnon has said so repeatedly. McDavid is also three assists from 100. Here’s the list of players who have a 100-assist season: Wayne Gretzky (x11), Mario Lemieux and Bobby Orr.

McDavid also wins every “most points since insert date here” argument, unless that date is the start of the season … for now. He might still claim that one as well.

Anyone who values the second half or last two-thirds of a season more is wrong — it’s an award for the whole season — but that person could lean toward McDavid.

The case against him should not be voter fatigue. A case that states his slow start, along with his teammates’, got coaches fired, is more valid.

McDavid is a wonderful player who deserves to win.

There is a good case for Panarin to deserve a place on the ballot. Sidney Crosby might steal some of those if the Penguins rally to make the playoffs. Quinn Hughes and Connor Hellebuyck could sneak onto some ballots as well.

Those four players have all had great, fantastic seasons. The issue in 2024 is it takes extraordinary seasons to gain access to this group of contenders.

One player who had an extraordinary season will win the Hart Trophy. Three players who also did will not.

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