Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.

Hi Parker, I know Russell Wilson is likely going to get cut but here’s a thought. What about keeping Wilson for another season while the Broncos bring along a rookie QB? I would imagine he’ll play slightly better in his second year in the offense and it would allow a rookie QB time to learn Payton’s offense. If Denver did that, what would the cap hit be following next season? Thanks.

— Brandon, Rogers, Minn.

Hey Brandon, thanks for writing in and getting us going this week. It’s not a bad thought, but the problem is the same as it’s been this entire time. Actually, the issue is twofold.

Really, though, the sticking point from the start has been Wilson’s 2025 money, $37 million of which becomes guaranteed on March 17 if he’s on the roster.

That means if nothing changed with Wilson’s contract and he played in front of a young starter next year, his dead money number a year from now would actually tick up to $86.6 million. That’s going to end up being a slightly lower percentage of cap because the cap will keep rising. Rudimentary, but if we use the same roughly 8% annual increase to the cap over the next two years, cutting Wilson this offseason costs Denver $85 million, or about 16.9% of its total cap space over the 2024 and 2025 seasons. A year from now, $86.6 million equates to about 15.9% of projected cap space between 2025 and 2026. Slightly less, to be sure, but it also means he’d count a total $122 million over the next three seasons on Denver’s cap for maybe another full year of starting or maybe a partial season before a young player takes over.

The other part of it is, if you take Sean Payton entirely at his word that he benched Wilson for football reasons and that he thought Jarrett Stidham truly gave the Broncos the best chance to win their final two games, then why would you subject yourself to this extended financial picture with Wilson? It’s why the math continues to add up to Denver releasing Wilson ahead of the March 17 deadline unless Wilson agrees to re-work his deal. And the only way he’s agreeing to re-work the deal, likely, is if it’s in pursuit of facilitating a trade.

I have regularly heard that a good coach can take his team and beat yours and then take your team and beat his. I figure this means that a good coach can figure out how to put whatever players he has in the best position to succeed. It doesn’t appear that anybody applies this criteria to Sean Payton because he does not come close to it. However, I regularly read about Payton as a quality coach. Is this standard used anymore to determine quality coaching or do new coaches get a free pass to “bring in their guys”? As an aside, I frequently see people reference the Saints’ single Super Bowl win as a credential for Payton, but by my lights, Payton should have won multiple Super Bowls with the Saints and Drew Brees.

— Shawn Thompson, Denver

Hey Shawn, thanks for writing in and great question.

Payton was very matter of fact about this in his postseason news conference. In the NFL, you are what your record says you are. And he went as far as to point out that, sure, the Broncos might have been a bounce here or a converted first-and-goal there from a playoff berth, but they just as easily could have been a six-win team. That’s reality. They were middling on offense and statistically not very good defensively — horrible at the beginning of the year, flying high in the middle and OK at best down the stretch.

Even still, there’s a fair point here to be made about the variety of mediocrity. And in a way, it’s the whole question as it pertains to the Broncos’ roster this offseason: Did Sean Payton maximize the roster he had last year and squeeze every drop out of it just to get to 8-9? Or did the coaching job overall fall short? Those are really the two options. Now, it’s not fully black and white. Obviously there are countless factors that come into play over a full year. But the Broncos were mostly healthy, they had their preferred quarterback available all season. Their offensive line started the first 16 games together. The defensive nucleus played a ton together. And yet, eight wins.

If Payton coached to the level he expects — and the level expected of him when ownership made him among the highest-paid coaches in the NFL — that might not speak well of where Denver is roster-wise. If there was more juice to squeeze out of the 2023 team, then that’s on the coaching staff. We’ve already heard general manager George Paton say that Denver won’t be all in on the first wave of free agency this spring like it was last year, but my suspicion is we’ll see the Broncos act more like a team this offseason that knows it needs major work than one that thinks it’s just a piece here or there away from healthy, long-term viability.

Hey Parker, do you think this is the year the Pro Football Hall of Fame finally inducts Randy Gradishar? He fully deserves to get in, but it feels like Mongo McMichael’s going to get the nod, especially with his declining health.

— Mike, Denver

Hey Mike, thanks for writing in! Gradishar should get good news on the Hall of Fame soon. Obviously, he was picked as a finalist among the senior contributor group in August. So as long as he gets 80% of the vote, he’ll be in. He’s not competing against McMichael or Art Powell for the honor. There are three finalists for three spots as long as they each get the requisite vote for induction. The class is set to be unveiled Feb. 8 as part of the NFL’s Super Bowl week NFL Honors program. So Gradishar’s wait is likely almost over. Officially.

I saw that a bunch of folks want the Broncos to take Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold at No. 12 in their mock drafts. Having two shutdown corners would be amazing, but it seems foolish with the weaknesses we still need to address. I get it, we need an answer at No. 2 opposite Pat Surtain II, but stopping our opponents’ offense won’t mean much if our offense just chimes in with repeated three-and-outs.

— John, Aurora

Hey John, good question. Mock drafts are projections, and the last time George Paton got to make a first-round pick — actually, the only time he’s had the pleasure as a general manager — he picked Surtain. It’s pretty natural, then, to think he’s going to be a fan of Arnold given the position, the tools, the training and, of course, the “A” on the helmet.

Mocks are great — I look at a ton of them — but they have limitations, especially this time of year. One thing that’s been interesting so far is there isn’t a ton of consensus on what the Broncos will do even positionally. Part of that is because the draft isn’t for three months and part is because nobody knows quite how to stack the quarterbacks after the first two or three.

Two other quick points: Denver has a whole bunch of needs. They could rationalize a first-round pick at quarterback, corner, tackle, edge, defensive line or wide receiver. Heck, they might run the card up there (or digitally run it up) if Georgia tight end Brock Bowers were to fall to No. 12. I think it would be a mistake to rule out corner just because you already have one good player there.

At the same time, you’ll find different people who like different corners in that mid first-round range. So, if you’re going to take one there, you better believe he’s a lot better than the guy you could get in the 20s if you traded back and added capital.

I’m in Mobile, Alabama this week for Senior Bowl practices and there are a bunch of interesting corners on the rosters like Missouri’s Ennis Rakestraw (not practicing or playing this week here), Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell, Penn State’s Kalen King, Oregon’s Khyree Jackson, etc. If you think Arnold is substantially better than Mitchell, Rakestraw, Kool-Aid McKinstry and others, then great. If not, go another direction or try to add capital and still get a similarly graded player a bit later.

The quandary for Denver: If the quarterbacks fly off the board early, it’s going to push blue-chip positional talent down toward No. 12. In that case, do you trade up for a signal-caller or stand pat and take the best available at one of many positions of need?

What do we do with Jerry Jeudy? His trade stock tanked last year.

— Mark T., Castle Rock

Hey Mark, yeah, it’s a tough call. The Broncos have received trade interest in Jeudy for more than a year and unless the price really bottoms out, a trade would hardly be surprising. That’s just an opinion, but we know teams called at the trade deadline and that they called last summer and last spring and the trade deadline before.

With Jeudy, the talent is apparent. The production hasn’t matched. Don’t forget about the contract, though. His cap number is reasonable at $12.987 million in 2024 and would get lowered if he signs an extension. Or you can let him play out the season. In that case, an acquiring team might look at it as good value for 2024 even if he’s not a No. 1. Then either A) he proves worthy of a lucrative extension or B) he wasn’t so expensive in terms of draft and salary cap capital that the acquisition cost really hurts.

We’re not talking about a haul of premium picks or anything like that, but the contract and talent means Jeudy probably still has a market out there if Denver is more willing to entertain trade offers this offseason.

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