Justin Simmons has seen this movie before. And like the rest of Broncos Country, he totally hated the ending.

“Defensively, I always said, there were four or five games (in 2021) where we could not win the game, right?” the Broncos’ Pro Bowl safety reflected after watching him team celebrate a hard-fought, rough-and-tumble 11-10 home victory over the San Francisco 49ers last weekend. “Four minutes (left), two minutes (left), whatever the case may be.”

This Broncos defense has given up only 36 points over its first three games, scrappy affairs against Seattle (road loss), Houston (home win) and the Niners (home win). Denver (2-1) heads into Sunday’s first AFC West showdown of the season, an afternoon tussle at the 0-3 Raiders, ranked No. 2 in the NFL in scoring defense (12.0 points per game) and No. 3 in yardage defense (251.3 allowed).

And if that feels a bit like déjà vu, that’s because it is. The Broncos got off to a 3-0 start a year ago on the backs of even more domination on defense, holding the Giants, Jaguars and Jets to just 26 points total.

In hindsight, what did it tell the Front Range about the rest of the season? Well, that the two New York teams were awful. And that then-Jacksonville coach Urban Meyer had no business being anywhere near an NFL franchise.

It was at this time in 2021, Week 4, that the cracks that would define a season — and end the reign of coach Vic Fangio — started to show. The 3-0 Broncos turned up at home against a Baltimore team with a healthy Lamar Jackson and postseason aspirations of its own.

The Ravens walked away with a comfortable (for them) 23-7 victory. That set the stage for a four-game losing skid, a collective here-we-go-again sigh and a sixth straight season without a playoff berth — a drought unseen at Mile High since the pre-Morton, pre-Elway dark ages of 1960-76.

Well, here we are. Week 4. Defense dominating. And another measuring-stick game — this one in Las Vegas against a Raiders franchise that’s in a funk under old Broncos coach/public enemy Josh McDaniels but has also won four straight in the rivalry.

“We want to beat the Raiders,” veteran outside linebacker Bradley Chubb noted earlier in the week.

“We want to (win) divisional games. And to be able to control everything we want to do in the postseason, that starts with this (game).”

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Want to believe in this D?

Then it also starts with Chubb and his mates getting their collective hands on Raiders quarterback Derek Carr. The Vegas slinger’s won six of his last seven meetings with the Broncos dating back to Dec. 1, 2018, with seven touchdowns thrown against just three picks.

“I don’t know what he does,” Chubb said, shaking his head, when asked about the voodoo Carr does so well whenever he sees the Orange & Blue. “But he does it well, so I’m excited for the challenge.”

Why does Carr matter? Besides the history, he’s a benchmark.

Because the first three quarterbacks on the Broncos’ 2022 dance card — Seattle’s Geno Smith, Houston’s Davis Mills and San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo — might be the worst three they play in succession all season.

The Seahawks (15.7 points per game), Texans (16.3) and 49ers (15.7) all rank among the NFL’s bottom 12 offenses in scoring — the Broncos are next-to-last, with 14.3 points per tilt — and passing yards per game. The Raiders, despite a winless start, rank 11th in scoring (21.3) and seventh in passing yards per game (266.7).

“I thought (the Broncos) would have had a little bit difficult time this season,” former Denver running back and radio analyst Knowshon Moreno told The Denver Post this week.

“You’re talking about a new head coach, a new offensive scheme, a new quarterback, new players. I know that expectations were really high in Denver, even around the league, that (the Broncos) were going to be up there (among the elite). I thought this year wouldn’t be easy, that they wouldn’t be as good (as expected) and they might miss the playoffs, especially with how difficult the AFC West is … at 2-1, it could be worse. But this week, versus the Raiders, that don’t have any wins, they’re going to come in hungry.”

Moreno knows what it’s like to practice against a defense that’s firing on all cylinders in September. His 2009 Broncos, after all, opened 3-0 under then-coach McDaniels, then ran that record to 6-0.

Over their first three tilts, thanks to a defensive unit that featured Hall-of-Famers such as Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins, the Orange & Blue surrendered just 16 points, the fewest by a Broncos team this century over a season’s opening month.

“They have some special guys on that (’22) defense,” Moreno continued. “From the corners to Simmons, even though he’s hurt right now … I like their defensive (front) with D.J. Jones. And (pass-rusher) Randy Gregory is a nice addition. So it does remind me of what we had. And we had Hall-of-Famers.”

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Want to believe in this D?

Believe in the situational victories. The Broncos head to Sin City third in the NFL in lowest opponent conversion rate on third downs (26.5%). They’re tops in the league in opponent touchdown rate in the red zone (25%, just one conversion in four tries).

First-year defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero’s unit also ranks No. 1 in the league in fewest second-half points surrendered, at just two per game. Hanging in there until quarterback Russell Wilson can bail you out in the fourth quarter may not be sustainable over the next three months. But with the exception of the Week 1 debacle in Seattle, it’s worked like a charm so far.

“I just think a lot of it is the players and coaches,” Evero told reporter late last week. “We get a feel for how people are going to attack us throughout the game and we make the adjustments. A lot of people talk about the coaches’ adjustments, but it’s just as important for the players to understand what is happening and make the adjustment. I just give a lot of credit to the guys that we have.”

And here we go again. Week 4. First real test. First proven opposing quarterback. Is this defense for real? Is this mojo for real?

For better or worse, we’re all about to find out.

“You can talk about it and all this stuff, and (how you’re) emphasizing this (and that),” Simmons reflected. “But now it’s about putting it into action. When you play complimentary football like that, as a defense, you never lose faith in the fact that you can win a game.”

Elite defense = Elite seasons?

Since 1993, the Broncos have held their first three opponents to under 40 points collectively just six times, including the start of the 2022 campaign. Here’s how the other five squads fared:

(Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com)