Denver Post sports writer Bennett Durando opens up the Avs Mailbag periodically throughout the season. Pose an Avalanche- or NHL-related question for the Avs Mailbag.
Do you see a major shakeup this offseason on the roster? The cap situation looks really bleak.
— @Pokecheque (via Twitter)
Definitely not a major shakeup, but cap navigation is a natural consequence of winning a championship. The Avs are actually pretty fortunate to have five top-six forwards locked up for the next two years after this: Nathan MacKinnon through 2031, Valeri Nichushkin through 2030, Gabriel Landeskog through 2029, Artturi Lehkonen through 2028 and Mikko Rantanen through 2025. Those five contracts equal $39.475 million — about 47% of next season’s projected $83.5 million salary cap.
Four of Colorado’s top-five defensemen also remain under contract next season, equaling $22.6 million (27%). In total, the Avs have 13 returning contracts worth a combined $64.875 million. That covers most of your core guys. And it leaves Chris MacFarland with $18.625 million to carry up to 10 more contracts on an active regular-season NHL roster.
The Avalanche will likely sign both 2019 first-rounders as their entry-level contracts expire, although the cost for Bo Byram is a complete mystery. His ceiling makes his average annual value the most impactful wild-card of the offseason. Alex Newhook should be more affordable, while the other pending restricted free agent, Denis Malgin, is becoming more compelling. The notable pending UFAs are J.T. Compher, Evan Rodrigues, Andrew Cogliano, Erik Johnson and Darren Helm — plus the trio of in-season trade acquisitions Lars Eller, Matt Nieto and Jack Johnson.
I just listed 11 players. Not all will be here next year. Compher is earning himself a pay day that MacFarland might not be able to afford. Erik Johnson, 35, is sitting on a $6 million salary and would probably have to accept a sizable pay cut to stay in Denver, especially to cancel out MacKinnon’s huge raise that goes into effect. Helm has been hounded by injuries in his age-36 season.
Most of these pending free agents are depth players, so they’ll either be affordable enough to re-sign or replaceable from a business standpoint. The point is, the window isn’t closing at all this offseason, even if it gets gradually more difficult to sign high-impact players.
What’s the ETA on Gabe Landeskog’s return? I know we’ve been rolling of late, but getting our captain back would certainly help us in the playoffs.
— Mike, Denver
Landeskog skated with the team during a morning skate for the first time Monday — but don’t read too much into that. “He’ll be working on his own quite a while,” Bednar said. He still hasn’t been willing to officially rule Landeskog out for the regular season, but I think it’s getting pretty safe to say it’ll take until at least the playoffs.
The tricky thing about this is that the team truly doesn’t know when he’ll feel good enough. It’s an entirely play-it-by-ear situation right now. Colorado is waiting for an indication from Landeskog that he’s at least one step closer. So it’s difficult for anybody to speak to the nature of his recovery except Landeskog himself — and team policy is to not make injured players available to media.
Hey Bennett, love your coverage! Can you break down why Mikko Rantanen’s been on such a scoring tear this season? He’s been a solid 30-goal scorer the last few years, but this uptick is pretty incredible.
— Ron, Parker
Part of the explanation is as simple as increased demand. Rantanen is one of only four Avalanche players to appear in the lineup for each of the first 70 games (joined by Compher, Newhook and Logan O’Connor). His average minutes are at a career-high, and he has buoyed the roster with Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Valeri Nichushkin missing a combined 55 games. That’s to say nothing of Landeskog’s season-long absence.
The onus is on him to take more shots — already a career-high in that category too with 12 games left. In Rantanen’s first six seasons, he averaged 196 shots per 82 games and never passed 200 in a season. This year, he’s at 258 shots in 70 games — an 82-game pace of 302.
So while his shooting percentage is also up to a career-high 18.2%, it’s still in the same ballpark as his previous seasons (16.2% for his career). That might be why MacKinnon, a longtime teammate, has been a bit defensive of Rantanen whenever asked about the “improvement” in Rantanen’s game this year. Answers tend to be along the lines of: He’s always been really good.
It’s true. Two years ago during a shortened season, Rantanen was quietly top-three in 5-on-5 goals with a higher 5-on-5 shooting percentage (16.82%) than this year’s (15.43%). Right now, he and Connor McDavid are grappling for the league lead in 5-on-5 goals.
One difference worth identifying, though, is that Rantanen is putting himself in more net-front positions for tips and redirects. This season, his deflections have a higher likelihood of being goals than the league-expected rate, whereas he was below league-expected last year, according to Hockey Viz. Mostly, though, he’s sticking to his strengths. He loves the right side of the ice, especially the faceoff circle for wristers and snapshots. And few players in the league possess his bullseye shot placement, especially to the far post top shelf.
How’s our goaltending situation heading into the playoffs? Is Pavel Francouz getting well enough to be our backup or are we going to Keith Kinkaid or Jonas Johansson?
— Mark, Arvada
As of early this week, Pavel Francouz was still at the weight room phase of his recovery, which has stretched longer than the initial four-week estimation. (Noticing a pattern?) Until he’s at least putting on skates to do individual work on the ice, I would say all bets are off. Chris MacFarland had that risk in mind when he traded for Keith Kinkaid, and the Avs like the experience he adds.
Johansson has been up with the NHL roster since March 6, and for Colorado to send him back to the minors, he would have to clear waivers. I doubt any other team would claim him this late in the season. Bednar has also said recently that part of the thinking with the goalie carousel is to keep the reserves active by playing them in the minors. The fact that Kinkaid is getting game reps in Loveland while Johansson sits idle in Denver tells me the Avalanche might prefer Kinkaid by playoff time.
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