Timing might be a crummy silver lining, but the last seven months have shown the Avalanche just how important it is.
Gabriel Landeskog is out for the year, again. Colorado’s captain is expected to miss the entire 2023-24 season after a cartilage transplant in his right knee scheduled for Wednesday in Chicago. Landeskog, whose most recent appearance was Stanley Cup-clinching Game 6 in June 2022, maintained Tuesday that “I have not contemplated retirement at all” despite this being his fourth surgery since September 2020 attempting to repair the chronic injury to his patellar cartilage.
This particular transplant procedure was first brought up to him last September, while he was deciding on a course of action for the 2022-23 season. He ultimately settled on an arthroscopic surgery in October that was supposed to take 12 weeks to recover from. Instead, Landeskog only started skating individually Feb. 21 and hasn’t made significant progress on the ice since then.
Reintroductions between Landeskog and the cartilage transplant were in order after it became clear he wouldn’t return this season. He consulted medical experts throughout April, seeking “the best solution for me to come back and play hockey again.”
“I’ve done more studying in the last month than I had since high school,” Landeskog said.
There’s a crucial difference between this conclusion about Landeskog’s status and last season’s, which took 80 out of 82 games to determine and announce. This time, the Avs know what they’re working with.
They’re working with $7 million extra in free agency.
“It potentially opens up avenues that weren’t available to us this past season,” general manager Chris MacFarland said.
A possibility lingered for most of 2022-23 that Landeskog might return in the regular season, which constricted the Avalanche from using extra cap space via long-term injured reserve. If a player is on LTIR, the team can exceed the league salary cap by that player’s cap hit, but only while the player remains on LTIR. This upcoming season, the Avs know he will remain there.
Without Landeskog, and excluding players on two-way deals who have swapped between the NHL and AHL recently, the Avs now have $62.5125 million in contracts on the books for 2023-24. That money is divided among 12 players — five forwards, four defensemen, two goalies and a forward/defense hybrid. Assuming an $83.5 million salary cap, that leaves Colorado with $20.9875 million to work. Eleven more players will complete a 23-man active roster.
Some of those spots will likely be filled by a combination of current players entering free agency and AHL players under contract. Bo Byram and Alex Newhook are under team control as RFAs and will likely sign new deals.
But the Avs need to figure out at least one top-six forward opening — potentially up to three depending on Valeri Nichushkin’s status and J.T. Compher’s apparent lack of affordability. (He stands to make in the $5 million range annually.)
Evan Rodrigues might be an attainable re-sign now, for starters. Colorado also has the room to make a big move, but a short-term deal might be necessary to account for Landeskog potentially returning in 2024-25.
MacFarland didn’t want to limit his options to that: “If there’s a player that we can potentially add (via trade) that has term and he fits what we’re trying to do from an age standpoint and it makes sense, we’ll find a way to make it work,” he said. But a short-term deal for a veteran, Cup-chasing forward seems most likely for a UFA signing. Jonathan Toews (Chicago), Patrick Kane (New York), Ryan O’Reilly (Toronto) and James van Riemsdyk (Philadelphia) are all on expensive, expiring deals.
If the Avs want a younger, longer-term setup in the top six, they might still need to move one of their current contracts in order to accommodate salary beyond one year. “We’re still tight on cap space,” MacFarland said. “I think any time you’re talking about these situations, there’s multiple layers you have to look at it through. Who can you get? What assets do you have to move that might be deemed attractive to the other team?”
Arizona’s Nick Schmaltz is one example of a compelling second-line center option with term. The Coyotes need a rebuild. But what would that type of acquisition take aside from prospects or picks? If the Avs are confident enough in their defensive depth, dumping a team-friendly contract with one year left on it (Devon Toews) or giving back another top-four blueliner with term (Sam Girard) are different routes that both make sense. One of those routes may be necessary. Otherwise, the offseason will be about piecing together smaller average annual values on short-term contracts to bide time. Scouting meetings start in the coming weeks for the Avalanche.
“I think everything will be on the table for us to try to improve,” MacFarland said. “But having X number of dollars because a player has a long term injury is one thing. Gabe Landeskog is a really special player. And while the knowledge of his situation certainly helps, replacing him is an entirely different conversation.”
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